Particle Mare

I always pay my debts.

A Ukrainian refugee fleeing to the EU has to cross the border. A Syrian refugee fleeing to Germany has to go through Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Austria… at some point it's no longer about fear of war. I'd prefer Germany to Turkey myself given Erdogan's current fiscal misadventures, but I wouldn't expect as much sympathy as someone fresh out of a warzone.

Washington Post: U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency

…in Washington and European capitals, officials anticipate that the Russian military will reverse its early losses, setting the stage for a long, bloody insurgency.

…as a first step, Ukraine’s allies are planning for how to help establish and support a government-in-exile, which could direct guerrilla operations against Russian occupiers, according to several U.S. and European officials.

Czechia apparently outlaws public expressions of support for the Russian invasion.

Breaking "big if true" news

An official Ukrainian military account is claiming that multiple EU countries have offered to supply fighter aircraft and that Ukrainian pilots will be able to fly them from Polish territory.

I'm 95% sure this is either a misunderstanding or propaganda, but if true then this is bordering on a declaration of war by Poland and we may see Russian air strikes on Polish territory.

How China plays its cards in the following months will be interesting. Clearly its developmental strategy has been geared toward preparing for a more isolationist bipolar (China vs West) or multipolar (Eurasian powers & West) world, as exemplified by its most recent five-year plans.

China betting on a gradual transition into a self-sustaining Eurasian economy, taking advantage of its size to achieve internal economies of scale, was arguably on track.

But now Russia has sped up the bifurcation of global power from a matter of decades to a matter of weeks.

China is in a surprisingly enviable position despite being Russia's ally, and is taking almost no heat. But now its longer-term Eurasianist ambitions have been derailed. It will either have to reconcile with the West, which means toning down the assertiveness of its territorial claims; or continue on its previous path, now indirectly weakened by Russia's isolation.

Zelensky accedes to beginning immediate negotiations in Gomel (in Belarus). Let's hope a settlement is reached and the war ends promptly.

Edit: Russia says its demands are demilitarization and a declaration of neutrality -- but I kinda doubt that's all the concessions it'll try to extract.

A direct attack on Kiev and elimination of Ukraine's standing army are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The Crimean front is very active and the RA is currently developing successful thrusts to the east and north. Combined with the Belarussian and northeast fronts, the RA is threatening to unhinge not only the defense of Kyiv but the entire Ukrainian position on the eastern front, where their best and most numerous formations are located.

The quote the linked analysis: "Ukrainian leaders may soon face the painful decision of ordering the withdrawal of those forces and the ceding of more of eastern Ukraine or allowing much of Ukraine’s uncommitted conventional combat power to be encircled and destroyed."

> Ukraine having lasted so long have fully porcupined itself.

There's evidence of this for Kyiv, maybe. We'll see if/when the city is taken. As for the rest of the country east of Galicia, I'm skeptical.

> Last time we had a similar situation Russia was better in every aspect militarily, and the conflict was one of the major pillars of destroying the USSR.

If you're talking about Afghanistan, I think there are more differences than parallels. Getting into speculative territory but I highly doubt that a country with a TFR of 1.23, declining religiosity, one of the world's highest emigration rates, and a very recent history of being in Russia's sphere of influence, will be able to sustain a Mujahideen-style insurrection. In the absence of massive foreign funding, I expect any occupation/puppet situation in Ukraine to look more like Tibet than Afghanistan.

I'll believe that Kyiv will hold when it holds. Russian ground forces have assaulted the city proper for less than a day and they still have the vast majority of their most capable BTGs in reserve. Distributing automatic weapons to civilian volunteers makes for a good headline, but doubtful that it meaningfully impacts the real balance of power.

The Ukrainian resistance has beaten all expectations, but even so my laymare's prediction is that Kyiv falls in 2-3 days and Ukraine's conventional armed forces capitulate in 1.5-2 weeks. I'll be stunned if it takes longer than the 5-week invasion of Poland.

Hi molomo,

Are you paying for participation? I'm willing to accept Doritos.

Regards,
Mare