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(Note i know this would fit to the Politics thread but i believe this is worth its own thread)
So do you guys remember the war on Ukraine back in "14?
Here is a short video summarizing it

So latelly there's been a lot of troop movements in the border between Ukraine and Russian and NATO has been calling for a complete withdrawal
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/13/russia-must-end-military-build-up-on-ukraines-borders-nato-says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-military-biden-donbas/2021/04/09/99859490-96d3-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html

A lot of people have been saying that this will lead into WW3 i personally disagree with this but i do believe this could cause a chain reaction that may end up creating a global conflict

So what are your thoughts on this?

It never really stopped, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia might just become hotter.

The question is whether either "sides" decide to escalate.

Oh, crud.

Oh fuck me, I can't wait for the fear of Russia to ignite here (Sweden) AGAIN.

in all seriousness though Russia's just gonna plow over Ukraine and that's gonna be it, Putin knows the west won't start ww3 over this or he wouldn''t be doing it

Putin is counting on everyone not wanting another world conflict, and he's bet on the right horse. Ukraine doesn't have that many friends with enough pull to bring any substantial forces against Russia. It'll be the Sudetenland all over again. Only time will tell if he goes the rest of the way, or how far he's willing to go in the first place.

I'm suddenly glad I have eye issues so I won't be drafted.

I commented this on Politics Thread, but i'll comment here as well.
This began in mid-March when the Ukrainians began a series of attempts to retake back Crimea, specifically a city called Sevastopol, which is a port-city that is strategically important to both Russia and Ukraine. For Russia, the very necessity of Crimea is entirely strategic, it is Russia's only warm-water major port, and it's gateway to the Black-Sea, the Mediterranean, etc. For Ukraine it is an issue of sovereignty, and also, because Sevastopol is a major trade city for Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have been eager to get the world on their side in this conflict, and, more or less, on paper Europe and the US is on their side…the question is, how far are the Europeans and the Americans are willing to put money and troops on the line to defend Ukraine against Russia?

Russia is playing the propaganda visual game. You are seeing a lot of videos of Russian troops and military buildup in Eastern Ukraine on social media…but this is deliberate, because if Russia wanted to, they can make that evidence disappear. So one must understand that Russia wants the world to see the seriousness of their troop capacity at the borders.

Russia has figured out an extremely good strategy at annexing territory that skirts much of the last 5 or 6 decades taboo of fighting wars for territory. The playbook is simple, but effective:

1) Rapid campaign that lasts no longer than a week, preferebly begun during either a weekend or a major international event.
2) Occupy the territory with a massive amount of troops.
3) Claim to "Liberate" the areas.
4) Create a political refferendum of whether the local inhabitants of the conquered area prefer to be under Invading Country's territory.
5) pressure said local inhabitants to democratically vote in favor of the invaders referendum.
6) spam social media and international media with the results, showing and displaying the invaded populace welcoming the invaders.

Why is step 4, 5 and 6, important? Because it's an incredibly good deterrent to the US and Western Powers. It's an easy out for the US and Western Powers from having to dedicate military or political power to the region because in the end they can say "Well, the people really DID want to be invaded, so who are we to intervene?".

Putin is gambling on the realities of post-Iraq US, that is, a US that is wholly war-weary. This war-weariness began to emerge under the later years o the Bush administration, during the Obama era (hence the reluctance of Obama to get engaged deeply in Syria or Middle East in general), and was exacerbated by the Trump administration. Currently, the Biden administration does not have the political capital to reverse this, and so the US, is, for all intent and purpose exiting the world stage as it's police man. For good or bad. The EU has no ability to stand up to the Russians when an overwhelming amount of it's energy sector is dependent entirely on the Russians for supply.

This is why Russia is doing what is is doing.
Incidentally, this is also why China is engaging in a lot of exercises around Taiwan, and a likelihood of a Taiwanese invasion is more likely to happen sooner than later. I bet a 40% chance even this year.

And China will play by Russia's book.
It'll first blot out any air-support the Taiwanese can muster. It will put 200k+ troops on the ground. Within 72 hours this can be achieved.
Next will come a cease-fire, followed by a referendum. China will show the world the millions of Taiwanese cheering in the streets at the prospect of being unified, which will give no political power to the US or any other power to do anything about it. it's all done Democratically, and no one can challenge it. And thus, we are back to the first half of the 20th century of conflicts over territory emerging.

The Russians created a bulletproof playbook. They utilize the very weaknesses that the US has – our undeniable respect for an international democratic process, and the domestic political damage it would do to disrespect it. It also knows that any other major power, i.e. the EU cannot actively do anything about it because it's dependence on Russia for energy.

Ukraine…is…fucked. Which is sad. My family's roots are from Ukraine. My grandfather fled the Holocaust from Ukraine to Uzbekistan, to move back to Odessa, and raise my dad there. While I myself am not from Ukraine, I'm from neighboring Moldova, we had many summer trips to a dacha in Odessa in my childhood. My closest friend is from Kiev, and he is very concerned about the realities on the ground because he has family still in Kiev. (I do not).

Incidentally, it seems that the Biden administration recognizes it's inability to do anything about what is happening and as of a few days ago the Biden administration recalled a US fleet from the Black Sea. We are, effectively, letting the Ukrainians high and dry on this one.

I disagree with you on Taiwan, unless the political situation changes an invasion would cause a serious incident, and possibly war

You knkw whats very upsetting ?

China is not the only one that could very easily take advantage of the situation

Turkey under Erdogan could also take advantage of this and attack Greece!! (Which is ofcourse very bad news for me)

Even North Korea could take advantage from this overall a lot of powers that normaly would keep away from doing certain stuff in fear of retaliation by the US and other powers will be able to use the situation to their advantage to wreck havoc!!

This whole thing has the potential to become a huge ugly mess and thats very scary

Without the US's intervention who exactly would go to war with China over Taiwan? The US has no formal treaty with Taiwan, it's a gentleman's agreement. We ended the formal defense treaty with Taiwan under Carter in 1979, to welcome relations with China. An invasion would cause a serious incident, and likely a very brief war with Taiwan, but no one else, as the US will not have the speed – or the will power to actually intervene in any realistic capacity. Even now, all we are doing is just sending supplies to Taiwan and nothing else.

Saying that however, during the last few months of the Trump administration an idea was floated around, with Trump being incredibly supportive of, was to officially put troops on the ground in Taiwan, effectively formalizing a defense treaty with Taiwan. As of so far, the Biden administration has indicated that it will follow through on this idea and if it does, then there is a real deterrent for China to invade Taiwan. But that is if there are actual terms.

Japan also fears growing US isolationism. It knows very well that the Chinese have not forgotten Nanking, and they also know very well that the Chinese are hell bent on repaying the Japanese for it. And it's not like they aren't in a conflict – they are, over Senkoku Islands.

I'm going to be real.
While there is a relatively big image of all these countries hating American interventionism, deep down they desperately are afraid of American isolationism. American political class does not give a shit if a country talks shit about us, they know these leaders largely do it for domestic consumption anyway. What they don't realize is that years of this kind of shit-talking on America has been effective in demoralizing American public support for interventionism. You think the CCP is going to tolerate this level of criticism and shit talking about China? America let the dictators do what they want internally, as long as the international order stayed relatively peaceful. If these dictators are chafing at America's yoke and think that it would be better under China, are they in for a big surprise when the CCP is directly telling you that you are effectively an unofficial vassal of China. Sure, that Chinese money is good now. It's delicious even. But what happens when you can't pay it back? They are going to start finding out soon enough.

While I am supportive of less interventionism, myself, the world is going to rue the day when America becomes isolationist again. Because unlike China, which is on the same land mass as all these other nations, America is two oceans away. We can afford to be isolationist. We can be dismissive about the international order. We've done that before.

Well, I already did my eight years but I wouldn't mind going back in though. I actually had a lot of fun while in uniform.

I think the time for Turkey to attack Greece has come and gone. It was touch and go during this Summer, but Turkey just doesn't have the diplomatic influence to justify it. They've also had to play a cat and mouse game with the French and Greek navies in the process, and Turkey has angered Egypt, Syria, Israel, Cyprus, Greece and France which all went into an informal coalition against their claims in the Eastern Mediterranean (some of these countries are now building economic and military ties together).

It's to the point that Turkey tried to release fake news about rapprochement with every single one of these countries, or tried to and failed:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1821661/middle-east
https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/turkey-tries-insulting-egypt-greece-in-imaginary-maritime-deal-analysis-660897
https://www.france24.com/en/20200108-turkey-libya-deals-void-egypt-france-greece-cyprus

They've even started to sour relations with Italy and the US, and the economy and political control of Erdogan is slipping, so for now he has a lot of problems.

Now, whether other countries will take advantage of the chaos to make their moves will have to be seen.

Both Greece and Turkey are in NATO, and Turkey's position at NATO Is tenuous, it's like having that one kid no one likes on your team but you can't do anything about it. If Turkey goes to war with Greece it'll pull NATO into the conflict, and let's be honest, Turkey doesn't have much allies around the world as it is. Ironically Turkey's only real allies in the ME is Israel, Palestinians, and Syria – they don't even have trade relationships with any ME countries.

Also considering that Israel and Greece are allies. Israel selling Greece it's weapons and technology. And much of the Arab world doesn't have much love for Erdogan. Especially the KSA.

If Erdogan thinks he can be the next Mehmed the Great, his ego is a bit too large for his britches.

Yup, if anything the most likely and worst consequence isn't that Turkey somehow succeeds at expanding. It's that it causes a war and tears up NATO, then collapses, which leads to a power vacuum and even more chaos.

Hopefully the situation will calm down before something like that, with Erdogan out and someone less agressive in power.

I'm gonna make a prediction; China and Russia are going to thrown the 2020 election in America's face when they're accused of rigging their "I actually wanted to be invaded" referendums.

I doubt that it will come to that.
The referendum elections wouldn't be rigged, at least not for Russia. Let's be real, Crimea is overwhelmingly Russian, so is Ossetia and Donetsk. They were given passports and guarantees to be part of Russia without having to move. Besides, say what you want, but Putin does feel that he has a right to interfere in 2016, not because he liked Trump, but because he overwhelmingly hated Clinton, and her direct interference in Russian elections. Eye for an eye, is how he views it. Keep in mind, for all the rhetoric about Trump being in Putin's pocket, sanctions against Russia and Russian oligarchs under Trump increased compared to the Obama years.

Taiwan has way to many troops to be overwhelmed immediately

Well I certainly hope not, but I also can't discount the possibility of unwanted escalation leading to open war. It happened in 1914, it can happen again. Europe has gone without great power wars for a mercifully long amount of time, but times of peace never last forever, sadly.

The question isn't about being overwhelmed, it's about shutting down the main power of the Taiwan's defenses, largely it's air force. Stationing troops and calling for immediate ceasefire would be the next step. It would take several days, for sure. But I doubt that with a cripled airforce, the Taiwanese wouldn't abide by a ceasefire demand. The international world tends to very often support any ceasefire after initial fighting breaks out.

Summarized Prediction
Ukraine will mostly be fine but the US and Russia will go into a large barely-proxy war in Ukraine with a limited nuclear exchange, and Russia will subsequently lose significant economic power and some influence with neighboring soviet bloc states. This distraction will encourage China to go after Taiwan, and Taiwan will be bombed about 50% before China is forced to a standstill by the US. Iran is the only one of these three that will likely do something not completely fucked in the head. After all this subsides, the EU will form a standing army and Britain will lose Scotland.

Russia/Ukraine
Russia invades Ukraine, US sends troops and drones, Russia goes to war with US indirectly then directly with troops, limited nuclear exchange between both nearly causes World War III, both sides back down, Russia gets isolated by everyone except China for initiating the exchange, US cuts all ties with Russia diplomatically and economically for normalizing limited nuclear war, threatens all-out nuclear annihilation if any nukes ever touch US soil, Russia backs off accordingly. Ukraine will become a hardcore NATO member after this and the US will likely ship its largest military forces here since WWII. Russian economy will go to the shitter, Putin will live a long life in spite of Navalny and this war and be remembered as an equal to Stalin and Lenin. Russian influence may or may not survive this ordeal over their neighboring soviet blocs.

China/Taiwan
China takes advantage of the chaos to invade Taiwan while US is dealing with Russian nuclear fallout, US responds way too slow, Taiwan gets heavily bombed, US arrives but can barely get on Taiwanese land, US issues ultimatum it will defend Taiwan to the death, China continues anyway, Taiwan gets 50% bombed to hell, China never captures Taiwan but does basically destroy it, global tech sector is sent into total turmoil due to loss of key player Taiwan. US will send largest aerial force here in global history, and largest naval force here since WWII. China will not be lampooned nearly as bad as Russia by the global community due to Russia crossing the nuclear line while some countries will argue China merely tried to reclaim its own territory. China will survive this ordeal and will parade the bombing of Taiwan as a good enough victory in their eyes.

Iran
Iran signs the damn deal and backs off with the nukes because they are not getting jack shit out of it due to combined efforts of US' isolation strategy and Israeli sabotage of nuclear weapons. Iran will still loosely try but not get anywhere for at least a couple more decades, if ever.

European Union
Will back up US forces in a very limited capacity, with only the key member states participating i.e. Germany, France etcetera. Tariffs, indirect support, barely helping but helping enough to warrant some praise and acknowledgement. Let's be real the EU never makes first moves mainly because it lacks the resources compared to US, Russian and Chinese militaries. This is what happens when you don't solve a lack of a unified military this late in the game -you look weak. With that in mind, once all of this has subsided the EU member states will form a new standing military in a limited collaborative capacity (collaborative because EU members do not get along politically and would not want to lose their status as independent nations).

Britain
Will lose Scotland and mimic the EU's paltry support moves toward the US. Probably won't lose Scotland until all of this has subsided given how drawn-out that will likely be.

Huh. I didn’t realize that

I dont think it matters, whatever happens the west will call schenanigens and the east will respond hypocrite, neither of them speaking from a moral high ground.

Apparently a /pol/ack predicted that WWIII will start in a few weeks, but because I didn't see the actual post, I'm taking that with a grain of salt

It's easier to see this in 2021, than it would be from 2016-2020, I get it. For all the media hype around Trump's connections to Russia, under his administration sanctions against Russia grew to astronomical levels. And if anyone bothered to actually understand the Russian "interference" in 2016 would have come to understand that much of it was fueled by anti-Clinton than pro-Trump. Literally, if the Republicans pushed in Jeb Bush, the same would have happened. And if the Democrats chose someone else as a running mate, then the Russians wouldn't have interfered as much. And I say "as much" because I am a realist. And I understand that almost every nation on Earth that has direct ties with the US finds a way to influence the outcome of our election one way or another. Neither the Democrats, or the Republicans, are willing to admit that, because that is a flood gate that neither wants to really delve into. The fact is, as long as the US is the super-power police-man of geopolitical events, our elections are a direct vested interest of much of the world. And…well…we do it too. The thing with democratic systems is that it's far easier to influence a desire outcome. Countries try to influence the US elections all the time, even our allies.

Yes, that includes Israel, but far more Korea and Japan, which at this point are more and more basing their entire sovereignty on the whims of American policy. And here's the rub with America being the "watch dog". For all the shit we are given, we are ultimately a reluctant participant in this endeavor. We have literally no realistic dog in the fight. What exactly does the US have to fear? We have an ally in the North in the form of Canada, Mexico is to the south of us and is utterly dependent on our economic good will. On the East and West we are surrounded by oceans, and we have one of the most powerful navies in the world. We literally do not have an existential cause in any of the world's conflicts.

Europe does. China does. the ME, does. Central Asia? For sure. Africa? You betchya. For all the shit the world is giving to the US for it's relative pax-Americana, they, an especially the Europeans, are going to be languishing when pax-American is going to end. And it will end. Sooner than any of us think.

And honestly, I have so much personal disdain for Europeans in general, that I kind of want to laugh and mock the day when they, as a mass, realize how utterly weak they are on the world stage. An old, dying, continent, seeing it's former slave-states becoming more relevant than they ever could have imagined, pretending as if they actually even matter today.

In all honesty, the only realistic super power to emerge out of West Europe would most likely be France. FRANCE. God the Krauts are going to hate that one.

You lack enough faith in France's propensity to self destruct at regular intervals.

Of course France would come out on top. Despite their performance in WW2 the stinky baguette men are fucking terrifying. Have you SEEN their record in warfare?

The french produce so much wine because its color reminds them of blood.

Nukes are unlikely to drop in this possible war at least in the Russian front

Putin wants Ukraine for its resources and popularity from his people dropping nukes would be counter productive and would go aginst his narrative that his country is simply "responding to NATO aggression" NATO and the US would also not drop any Nukes in this because that would invite the Russian to nuke them back and would give legitimacy to Putin

I fail to see how the UK can lose Scotland in this

Wishful thinking.

The latest leader of the Scottish National Party is a Trudeau esque internationalist EU-phile. Combined with the default "root for anyone opposed to the english" mentality and the usual suspects like to predict thier success at every opportunity.

The reality on the ground however is that they are in limbo of legitimacy with a "once in a generation referendum" only 7 years before, so Westminster can safely ignore them.

Making it even less likely they will be able to push for independance any time soon is that thier leader also has Trudeau's fascist streak; stabbing the previous leader in the back and pushing freedom index lowering legislation.

Lets just say with that the prospect of her becoming an independant Scotland's first PM; support for the idea is somewhat diminished from 2014.

Oh shit. I almost forgot the first time the Russia-Ukraine conflict hit global news
It feels like it was so long ago, and yet so recently at the same time

Yes

And thats why its called "Europes Forgotten War"

UPDATE

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-orders-soldiers-back-from-ukraine-border-after-weeks-of-tension/a-57288083

Good news Russia pulled back its troops from the border it seems we have avoided War for now

Joe did somewhat stupidly choose the worst time to piss off the strongest Nato member in the region, but I doubt it's gonna end in nuke lobbing.

As for Burma, interveining screams Vietnam 2.0

>joined 20 hours ago

Yeah no

Yeah fuck morality because MUH REALPOLITIK

Good thing that Nordcvck got banned. When I made a thread talking about Catholicism since I was kind of afraid if I was a heretic, he wrote: "You worship a Jewish man on a stick. Thor would’ve beat Jesus’s ass"